China's growth in 2022 is anticipated to be the lowest in 40 years.

 China's growth in 2022 is anticipated to be the lowest in 40 years.

BEIJING: Following the twin crises of the pandemic and the housing crisis, economists predicted that China's economic growth for 2022 would be among the weakest in the past forty years.

The average GDP growth rate predicted by the ten experts consulted by AFP is 2.7 percent annually, a dramatic decline from China's projected growth of more than 8 percent in 2021. After the Covid-19 virus surfaced in Wuhan in late 2019, it may possibly be China's slowest pace since a 1.6 contraction in 1976 — the year Mao Zedong passed away — and excluding 2020. Beijing had set a growth goal of about 5.5 percent for 2022, but the government's "zero-Covid" policy, which slowed down both manufacturing and consumption, weakened this goal.

 

Manufacturing facilities and enterprises in significant hubs, including Zhengzhou, the location of the largest iPhone manufacturer in the world, were abruptly shut down as a result of strict lockdowns, quarantines, and mandatory mass testing, which had an impact on the entire global supply chain. After maintaining arguably of the strictest Covid regulations in the world for three years, Beijing dramatically lifted pandemic limits in early December.

 

 Growth is sluggish

The number of Covid cases in China is surging, overwhelming the country's hospitals and medical personnel. The fourth-quarter growth for 2022, which will also be released on Tuesday along with a number of other measures like retail, industrial production, and employment, is likely to reflect this.

According to economist Zhang Ming of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing, "the fourth quarter is relatively difficult." "The growth is declining regardless of whether it is measured by investment or consumption criteria." China's exports fell 9.9 percent year-over-year in December, the sharpest drop since the pandemic began, while consumption fell in November and investment lagged.

 The worst is over

These actions were cited as a cause for hope by several observers. According to HSBC analyst Jing Liu, who forecasted a downturn in the near future, "the transitioning phase will certainly be rocky as the government may need to deal with surging cases and more stressed health services." But she added that "China's reopening process has started" after three years of health restrictions. China's GDP is expected to rise to 4.3 percent in 2023, which is still below projections, according to the World Bank.

Larry Yang, an economist, proclaimed 2023 as "the year of returning to certainty. He predicted that growth would pick up quarter by quarter in 2023 and predicted a GDP of 5% for the entire year, which was in line with other analysts AFP spoke to.

The hardest time for the economy has already passed, according to Yang.

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